Raising the retirement age for police officers. Everything you need to know about raising the retirement age Who will not be affected by raising the retirement age
Medvedev launched pension reform
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced an increase in the retirement age. The government proposes to raise the retirement age for men from the current 60 to 65, and for women from 55 to 63. Thus, the last "transition year" will be 2034, when the retirement age for women will reach a new level. From 2019, the retirement age will rise by one year every two years - for example, men born in 1959 and women born in 1964 will receive the right to retire in 2020, namely, at the age of 61 and 56 years respectively.
Pensions will grow faster
The government claims that raising the retirement age is long overdue and all conditions have been created for this. The current retirement age was introduced back in 1956 in the USSR, when the level of medical and social security was at a low level. Raising the retirement age is necessary, according to the Cabinet, for a more rapid growth of the pensions themselves. At the moment, according to Medvedev, pensions are growing by an average of 400-500 rubles a year (in 2016, the growth was 399 rubles, in 2017 - 524 rubles, in 2018 it will be 481 rubles), the reform will increase the growth rate pension provision twice - by a thousand rubles a year. According to the results of 2017, the average pension amounted to 13,620 rubles, so by the time the reform is completed, it can grow by at least 10,000 rubles.
Russia took the example of raising the retirement age from Kazakhstan
The retirement age in Russia is one of the lowest not only in the whole world, but even in comparison with its closest neighbors and countries of the former Soviet Union. For example, in Kazakhstan, the retirement age for men is 63 years, and for women - 58 years, this level was set back in 2001. Moreover, since 2018, the second stage of increase has been going on in Kazakhstan - by 2027, the retirement age for women will rise to the level of men. Belarus began raising the retirement age in 2017 and intends to bring it up to 63 years for men and 58 years for women, it is planned to do this by 2022. For comparison, the retirement age in Norway, which Russia often takes as an example, is 67 for both men and women; in the UK, both sexes retire at 65.
The government will set European pension standards
During the government meeting, the Prime Minister said that the Cabinet intends to raise the issue of ratifying the Convention on Minimum Standards for Social Security. “Its provisions will make it possible to bring the legislative regulation of the pension sphere to international standards. It establishes a clear correlation between the average pension and average earnings,” Dmitry Medvedev said. One of the fundamental principles of the Convention is that the pension must be at least 40 percent of the lost income, that is, the employee's salary.
Pension reform is overdue
As of January 1, 2018, the official population of Russia was 146.9 million people. Of these, 46.5 million people are pensioners, that is, 31.7 percent of the total, while working pensioners, according to official statistics, were 26.4 percent of the total number of pensioners, or 12.3 million people. The authorities insist that more than 50 percent of citizens remain in work upon reaching retirement age. For example, in 2017, 1.45 million people retired, and 0.73 million of them continued to work. The government fears that the proportion of working pensioners will continue to grow, which will prevent the other half from raising their pensions.
When the current pension standards were set for one pensioner, 3.7 people of working age “paid” (paid pension and insurance contributions to social funds) in the pension system. The current demographic situation and trends in the labor market will lead to the fact that by 2019 only two able-bodied people will “pay” for one pensioner - the system may not even be able to cope with payments at the current level.
Current retirees have nothing to fear
Dmitry Medvedev noted during a government meeting that the current pensioners have nothing to worry about. “With regard to current pensioners, no rules are changing,” the prime minister assured. Moreover, retirement age benefits will be maintained. We are talking about citizens who work in hazardous and hazardous industries, women with five or more children, disabled people, Chernobyl survivors and others. For workers in the Far North, the retirement age will be set at 60 and 58, respectively. An additional benefit is provided for citizens with long experience - they will be able to retire two years ahead of schedule. We are talking about women with more than 40 years of experience and men with more than 45 years of experience.
VAT also went up
In addition to raising the retirement age, during a government meeting, it was announced that the value added tax (VAT) would be raised from the current 18 percent to 20 percent. As First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov noted at the meeting, this measure will make it possible to receive an additional 600 billion rubles in tax revenues per year. “These funds, together with additional income from the completion of the oil and gas maneuver, will be the main sources for financing the national development goals set in the presidential decree of May this year,” Siluanov said. As planned by the government, the tax increase will also allow businesses to participate in raising the pensions of Russians, while without the reform it would not be possible to maintain the current level of insurance premiums paid by businesses - they would have to be increased.
Documents will be sent to the State Duma
According to Medvedev, the law on raising the retirement age and VAT will be sent to the State Duma in the near future. “All draft laws, all accompanying documents should be sent to the State Duma as soon as possible so that our fellow deputies can consider them in the first reading before the end of the spring session. Therefore, I ask all relevant ministers and deputy prime ministers, the government apparatus to deal with this as a priority,” the prime minister demanded. Medvedev, in turn, expressed the hope that the parliament will support the proposed innovations and quickly accept them. After the State Duma and the Federation Council, the documents will be signed by the President of Russia.
On October 3, 2018, Vladimir Putin signed a package of laws on changes to pension legislation, including on raising the retirement age from 2019. A week earlier, the corresponding one in the final, third reading was adopted by the deputies of the State Duma, taking into account a number of significant amendments, including those proposed by the President himself in a televised address to the citizens of Russia on August 29, 2018.
V. Putin's proposals were approved by the deputies unanimously, since the main goal of the presidential amendments was easing pension changes, in particular:
According to the initial draft of the pension reform, prepared by the government under the leadership of Medvedev, after the transition period, which will begin as early as 2019, the retirement age was to be 65 years for men and 63 years for women. At the same time, all proposed changes should have been carried out taking into account a long transition period - within 5 years for men (by 2023) and 8 years for women (by 2026). Such a bill was adopted in the first reading on July 19 in the State Duma, and by the second reading it was adjusted taking into account the proposed amendments, including the presidential ones. In the final version of the law, the retirement age is 60 and 55 years, respectively, and the transition period will last 5 years.
Law on raising the retirement age
The text of the final law No. 350-FZ of October 3, 2018 on raising the retirement age, signed by the President, can be found below:
In connection with the increase in the retirement age, there will also be changes deadlines for retirement pension. This will affect those citizens who, by the time they reach the age of 65 and 60, respectively, will not be able to enter the usual labor pension due to the fact that they have not scored a sufficient number of pension points and insurance experience. For them, the retirement age will increase. up to 70 years for men and up to 65 years for women(Now you can apply for men over 65 and women over 60).
Retirement schedule by year from 2019
As a result of the discussion of the bill in the State Duma, taking into account the amendments of Vladimir Putin, a final decision was made on the pension reform, and the table of retirement age values as a result of all the changes envisaged will look like this:
According to the schedule, which has been adjusted to take into account presidential amendments, in 2019 men and women who turn 60 and 55 years old in the first half of the year (men born in 1959 and women born in 1964) will retire - they will have to work half a year more (respectively 60, 5 and 55.5 years). Those who turn 60 and 55 in the second half of 2019 will receive payments in the first half of 2020 (six months after their 60th and 55th birthdays).
Why is pension reform necessary?
The Government substantiates the need for the next one by the fact that the existing ones until the end of 2018 (55 years for women and 60 years for men) were adopted back in the days of the USSR (in 1932), which does not correspond to the current situation in the country: working conditions have changed significantly, the duration of the active life phase and the life expectancy of Russians, etc.
The budget funds saved as a result of raising the retirement age, according to Kommersant, can be used to implement the new May Presidential Decree No. 204 dated May 7, 2018 "On the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024".
“If the retirement age is increased by five years from 2019 in a tough version, most of the national projects will be paid for with this savings.”
Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 81 of 05/15/2018
The fact is that in order to fulfill the goals of Russia's long-term national development projects, it will be necessary to redistribute expenditures, as well as attract additional funds to the federal budget. Against the background of this task, set by the President in May 2018, the Government once again returned to the issue, which is based on raising the age of citizens, upon reaching which they are entitled to receive an old-age pension.
The changes proposed by the Government will allow in the future to increase the average amount of pensions for Russian pensioners above the rate of inflation(average ). Thanks to this, the task set by the President to increase the income level of pensioners at a rate exceeding the rate of inflation will be fulfilled.
Pros and cons of increasing the retirement age in Russia
Discussion of issues related to changes in the pension system, one way or another, takes place regularly. Even President Vladimir Putin himself in recent years has repeatedly noted the need to increase the retirement age, which should be gradual.
Objective reasons there is for this. Thus, according to Rosstat, the retirement age values established at the end of 2018 (according to part 1 of article 8 of the federal law of December 28, 2013 No. 400-FZ are 55 years for women and 60 years for men as of December 31, 2018) are based on outdated indicators of life expectancy of Russians - namely, on data from 1926-1927 (see table).
Experts note that by 2030 the proportion of the disabled population over retirement age will increase by 2.8% compared to 2018 (from 38,023.9 thousand people to 41,386.4 thousand people). In turn, the share of the working-age population will decrease by 1.7%.
However against the rise There are many more reasons for retirement age. First of all, raising the retirement age may create risks of unemployment among young people and older workers, which will affect the level of poverty and lower wages in the Russian Federation. In addition, this change may cause an increase in the number of registrations (50% of Russians aged 60 have diseases for which they can apply for a pension).
The three “opposition” parliamentary parties (“Fair Russia”, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party) also received statements of disagreement with the changes proposed by the Government, so they voted against adoption of the relevant law. On May 15, 2018, State Duma deputies from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation even introduced bill No. 466379-7, which suggests moratorium on raising the retirement age until January 1, 2030.
RANEPA experts developed their own concept of reforming the pension system of the Russian Federation, which generally excludes the need to raise the retirement age, subject to an increase from the federal budget and an increase by 5 percentage points (thus increasing the tax burden on employers).
If we dwell on raising the retirement age, then the RANEPA believes that the best option would be to carry out a reform according to the following scenario:
- raise the retirement age
- up to 60 years for women (that is, for 5 years);
- up to 63 years for men (that is, for 3 years);
- do this increase smoothly - for 3-6 months a year.
Transition period
The increase in the retirement age will be gradual. A long transition period is envisaged. For men - until 2028. For women - until 2034.
Who is first?
Photo: © RIA Novosti / Vitaly Belousov
Now women in Russia retire at 55, men at 60. In 2020, women will be able to retire at 56, men at 61. Thus, the first to be affected by the reform will be women born in 1964 and men born in 1959.
The next increase will be in 2022. Women will be able to retire at 57 and men at 62. Then there will be three more stages of increase with an interval of two years.
As a result, when the transition period passes, women will retire at 63, and men at 65. You can see more details about the stages of promotion in our infographic.
Workers of the Far North
Workers in the Far North have pension benefits. They will stay. Now men in the North have the right to retire at 55, women at 50. The retirement age will increase to 60 for men and 58 for women. The increase will also be gradual.
Health workers and teachers
For doctors and teachers, the retirement age is being raised. But here is a more complicated scheme, because these (and some other) categories of workers have the right to retire early. To do this, you need to have a long experience - it lasts from 15 to 30 years (depending on the profession).
The increase will also be gradual. For example, now a teacher, having worked for 30 years, has the right to retire immediately (it does not matter how old he is).
In 2019, there will be the first stage of the increase. Let's say it was in 2019 that our teacher gained 30 years of experience. The teacher will be able to use his right to retire only a year later, that is, in 2020.
The last stage of the increase will be in 2026. A teacher who has accumulated 30 years of experience by 2026 will be able to retire after 8 years, that is, in 2034.
officials
For civil servants, the retirement age will increase in the same way as for all other Russians.
Non-working
Those who have never worked (or did not have time to earn the minimum length of service - this is 7 years) will continue to receive a pension. But it will be appointed later. For women, the age will increase from 60 to 65 years, for men - from 68 to 70 years.
Who will not be affected by the changes?
Russians who already receive a pension will continue to receive it.
Also, the changes will not affect miners, employees of enterprises for the extraction of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, railway workers, as well as all Russians whose working conditions are legally recognized as difficult.
All these changes also do not apply to other social payments. For example, disabled people, as now, will be entitled to a social pension, regardless of age.
How much is a pension?
Photo: © RIA Novosti / Evgeny Yepanchintsev
In 2018, the average insurance pension for non-working pensioners was 14.4 thousand rubles. Annually the pension increases by 300-500 rubles.
Economist. Experience in leadership positions in the manufacturing industry. Date: September 13, 2018. Reading time 6 min.
For 1,000 rubles. will increase payments to non-working pensioners from January 2019, which exceeds the forecast inflation rate. Such dynamics will continue until 2024, i.e., the income level of pensioners will grow every year.
The increase in labor pensions is regulated annually by legislative acts, which are signed in parallel with the adoption of the budget. The fact that the indexation scheme would change dramatically became known in 2018, when in the “May Decrees” No. 204 of 05/07/2018, President Putin V.V. gave a guideline for ensuring sustainable income growth for pensioners until 2024.
The government announced in June the first steps to implement the presidential decree, announcing about., as reported by Tatyana Golikova - Deputy Prime Minister - at a meeting of the trilateral commission.
Quote : "... all the funds that will be received from raising the retirement age ... will be used to ensure the pension system and to increase the pension provision of our citizens," - T. Golikova.
For the first time, pension reform was justified as a tool to ensure the growth of pensioners' income. Later this position was confirmed during the changes in the pension legislation by the Minister of Labor and Social Protection Maxim Topilin. The official confirmed that the relevant changes will be made to the next federal budget and the PFR budget, which will be linked to the new pension bill.
Indexation of pensions
For ordinary citizens, the wording of officials did not reveal the essence of the increase. Questions remained unclear: For 1,000 rubles. Will all pensioners receive an increase in pension from January 2019? Will it be a fixed amount? For what period will the promised thousand be paid?
In fact, the Government had in mind the annual indexation of insurance pensions, which was traditionally held in February. But unlike the recalculations that were made before, the promised increase will not be tied to the actual rate of inflation. Until 2018, inclusive, non-working pensioners were increased payments twice: in February by the planned indicator and in April, based on the results of the past year, namely, by the level of actual inflation.
Indexation in a new way will be carried out, regardless of inflation set at the end of 2018, since the planned increase factor initially exceeds it. This will allow not only to increase insurance payments at a higher rate, but also to postpone the indexation period to the beginning of the year.
Terms of increase
Application for an increase in payments by 1,000 rubles. per month or 12,000 rubles. per year, many pensioners were misled. Is it possible that payments in 2019 will increase monthly by 1,000 rubles, which will increase pensions by 12,000 rubles by the end of the year?
In fact, indexation will be carried out only once - at the beginning of 2019. From January 1, pensioners will receive an increase of 1,000 rubles. benefits throughout the year, which in total will give an increase of 12,000 rubles. by year. The increased pension level, taking into account growth, will remain throughout 2019 until the next indexation, which will be held in January 2020.
The very same 1,000 rubles. was designated by the government as the average amount. Pensions will be indexed by 7.05%, which, based on the size of the average pension, is one thousand.
That is, the average amount of pension payments, amounting to 14.4 thousand rubles, will be increased in January 2019 to 15.4 thousand rubles. Throughout the year, the average pensioner will receive 15.4 thousand rubles. monthly (1 thousand rubles more than in 2018). During the year, his income will increase by the promised 12 thousand rubles.
Such indexations are planned to be carried out annually in January until 2024 inclusive, that is, over 6 years, payments will increase by 1,000 rubles, which will eventually increase pensions from 14 thousand rubles. up to 20 thousand rubles
How much will payouts increase?
The amount of 1,000 rubles. has been designated by the Government as a guideline. Conditionally, the increase was tied to the average pension in Russia.
Note! Before the reform, the average pension increased by 500 rubles.
But the increase will be carried out not in the form of adding a fixed amount, but according to the indexation scheme. That is, a coefficient will be used to calculate the increase.
The promised "increase of 1,000 rubles." - this is 7.05% of the average pension of 14,141 rubles.
This means that pensioners who receive higher payments can expect a substantial increase. For example, those who receive 25,000 rubles will receive an allowance of 1,762.5 rubles, and a security of 40,000 rubles. will increase, respectively, to 42,820 rubles.
However, far from everyone receives retirement pensions above the average level. Therefore, the allowance for many pensioners will not reach the promised 1,000 rubles. So, with payments of 10,000 rubles, only 705 rubles will be added. and a pension of 7,000 rubles. will grow by 493.5 rubles.
To whom in 2019 it is planned to increase the pension by 1000 rubles. per month
"The main beneficiaries of the reform" Labor Minister Topilin called non-working pensioners. This means that the funds received as a result of raising the retirement age will be used to increase payments to this particular category of Russians.
The promised additional payment from January 2019 will be given exclusively to non-working pensioners who receive insurance pension payments.
Russians of retirement age who continue to work will not receive an additional payment. Indexation for this category of pensioners was frozen back in 2016, and no changes are expected in the future. The only thing that working pensioners can count on is by increasing pension points. But the amount of such an additional payment will not exceed 250 rubles, since the amount cannot increase by more than 3 points per year.
In order to receive increased payments, taking into account all the missed indexations, including the recalculation planned for the beginning of 2019, a working pensioner can quit his job and go on a well-deserved rest.
Further increase in pensions
The standard indexing scheme will change completely from 2019. If the recalculation was carried out according to the old standards, in 2019 the surcharge amounted to an average of 570 rubles.
At the end of 2018, the projected inflation rate is about 4%. Despite such indicators, payments will increase by 7%, which will significantly exceed inflation. Therefore, the increase not only compensates for the depreciation of the pension, but also ensures the growth of real income.
In the current demographic, economic and institutional conditions, it is impossible to provide pensioners with a decent amount of pensions, Lilia Ovcharova, director for social research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told RBC. According to her, raising the retirement age in other countries was accompanied by changes in the healthcare system, as well as the implementation of programs to support the employment of older people. “If these measures are not taken, then, of course, there are significant risks associated with the fact that, firstly, unemployment among older people will increase in our country. Secondly, the proportion of people who draw up a pension not for old age, but for disability, may increase quite avalanche-like,” Ovcharova warned.
"63/65" is not the only option that was discussed when deciding on a new retirement age. As sources for RBC, the government also considered other parameters, in particular, an increase in the retirement age to 65 for men and 60 for women, as well as to 62 and 60 years, respectively. The parameters “65/63” chosen by the government are an “extreme” scenario and a “bargaining offer,” said Alexander Safonov, Vice-Rector of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations. At a briefing following the government meeting, First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov refused to consider the adopted option "the toughest." The fact is that the government raises the retirement age in stages, he explained.
By old memory
The government did not equalize the retirement age for men and women, although women in Russia, according to statistics, live longer than men (life expectancy is 77 years versus 66.5 years, according to Rosstat (.pdf) for 2017). There are no demographic and economic reasons for maintaining the difference in retirement age for men and women, Ovcharova believes. “But it is an ingrained social norm that women have some social bonus for caring for children and the elderly,” the economist said. “Given that women live longer, the retirement age for both men and women from an economic point of view should be the same,” Ovcharova said.
Who can retire and when
When raising the retirement age, a 10- and 16-year transitional period is provided. The increase itself will take place at a rate of "plus one year every year," follows from the statement of Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova. The increase will affect men 1959 and younger and women 1964 and younger. For example, men born in 1959 and women born in 1964 will be eligible to retire in 2020 at ages 61 and 56 (under current rules, they would have retired in 2019). Men born in 1960 and women born in 1965 will be able to retire in 2022 at ages 62 and 57, respectively.
In general, the transition period will continue until 2028 for men and until 2034 for women (see infographic). From now on, all men and women who do not belong to privileged categories will retire at 65 and 63, regardless of the year of birth.
Retirement age and for some categories who are eligible to retire early. For example, citizens working in the regions of the Far North and in regions equivalent to them will be able to retire at 60 and 58 years (for men and women, respectively). Now their retirement age is 55 and 50 years. Pensions on this basis receive 2.9 million people, it was noted in the materials for deputies and senators. The transition period for them will be the same as for retirement on general grounds.
The age of early retirement (for the same five and eight years) is also for pedagogical, medical and creative workers. The social old-age pension, which is received by citizens who do not have the necessary work experience, is also - from 65/60 years for men and women to 70/68 years. And people who have a long work record - 40 years for women and 45 years for men - will be able to retire two years earlier (there is such an opportunity now).
The current amendments do not provide for changes to the length of service required by the military upon retirement (now 20 years), but the Ministry of Finance, according to Siluanov, believes that it "should also be adjusted." “We also have such studies with the Ministry of Defense, this will be one of the elements of our proposals,” the First Deputy Prime Minister said.
Who will not be affected by the retirement age increase?
The government has determined the categories of citizens who will be able to retire under the same conditions as now, Medvedev said. Among them are those working in hazardous and hazardous industries; women who have five or more children; visually impaired of the first group and military trauma; one of the parents or guardians of people with disabilities since childhood; citizens affected by the Chernobyl accident.
How does this compare to life expectancy?
Since the current retirement age limits were approved (some of them were adopted in the 1930s, and the basic rules were approved in the 1950s-1960s), “life expectancy has increased by more than 30 years, in addition, living conditions have changed, and working conditions,” Medvedev said. Now this figure is almost 73 years, and by 2030, according to President Vladimir Putin, it should reach 80 years.
But with the current retirement age for men (60 years), the probability of surviving 20-year-old men to retirement age is 68%, RANEPA economists Yuri Gorlin, Viktor Lyashok and Tatiana Maleva. With an increase in the retirement age to 63 years, the probability of surviving to this age and living long in retirement for Russian men becomes one of the lowest among developed countries (below the level of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Belarus), they emphasized.
Dmitry Medvedev and Anton Siluanov (Photo: Mikhail Japaridze / TASS)
The authorities "dramatically changed the situation in terms of life expectancy since 2000, the situation has changed even more dynamically since 2007, when various national projects in the field of health and demography were adopted," Labor Minister Maxim Topilin said on Thursday.
Not the last step
The retirement age bill has yet to pass through parliament and the presidential administration. The document will be submitted to the State Duma "as soon as possible" so that deputies can consider it in the first reading before the end of the spring session, Medvedev said (thus, the main discussion of the reform will take place in the fall). Vladimir Putin, who is to put his final signature on the bill, has not spoken about raising the retirement age unequivocally before.
“As for the retirement age, you know my position, I have always treated this and treat it today with the utmost caution and accuracy. What would you like to pay attention to? One of the key tasks that I have formulated to the government is to increase the income of pensioners, and a significant increase in their income, ”he said during the annual direct line in June.
What will the citizens and the state get
After the retirement age is increased, the pensions of current pensioners will increase by 1,000 rubles. per year, Medvedev said. Now insurance pensions are indexed to the level of last year's inflation - for example, in 2018 the average pension will increase by 481 rubles, in the past two years it has also grown by 400-500 rubles. The growth of pensions above inflation is spelled out in Putin's May decree. Thanks to the change in the retirement age, pensions will be indexed not only on February 1 for inflation, as before, but then on April 1 (at the expense of additional income), Tatyana Golikova said. But the government does not yet plan to return the indexation of pensions to working pensioners, which was suspended in 2016. Golikova told reporters on Thursday that there is no such measure in the current package of amendments.
“The decision to raise the retirement age is one of the steps to increase the resources of the Pension Fund, which, of course, will be used to increase pensions for pensioners,” Siluanov said, without specifying specific figures on the economic effect.
The financial effect of increasing the retirement age will increase from year to year and will exceed 1% of GDP by the beginning of the 2030s, Vladimir Nazarov, director of the Finance Ministry's Research Financial Institute, told RBC. “In the first year [of raising the retirement age] it will be about 150 billion rubles, then the figure will increase and grow to over 1% by the beginning of the 2030s,” Nazarov said. According to him, part of the funds will most likely be used to increase the size of pensions. “At current prices, this will approximately be an increase of 1 thousand rubles. By the beginning of 2030, we will be able at current prices (that is, adjusted for inflation. — RBC) bring the pension to 20 thousand rubles,” the economist noted. With an increase in the retirement age, GDP can grow by an additional 0.5 percentage points. per year from 2019 to 2028, Kuzmin calculated.
Raising the retirement age can reduce the Pension Fund's deficit by "several hundred billion rubles, but it will create social and macroeconomic problems," believes Sergey Suverov, director of the analytical department of BCS Savings Management Company. “In particular, there may be pressure on wages, and consumer demand is also likely to decrease,” he said.
Will unemployment
The economic effect of raising the retirement age in the proposed scenario does not justify the social risks, Safonov believes. The authorities will face the need for additional costs to bring the income of unemployed citizens to a living wage, he stressed. “At the same time, a decision is being made to raise VAT (it was increased from 18% to 20%. — RBC), which will affect the income of the population. The real incomes of citizens will fall, respectively, this will aggravate the employment situation, ”the expert said. According to him, the probability of rising unemployment is “very high”.
“Given that we are now in unique demographic conditions, when a very small generation of the 1990s enters the labor market, and a huge generation of post-war baby boomers exit the labor market, then purely statistically there can be no increase in unemployment,” Nazarov objects. . Moreover, it will decrease, “because raising the retirement age, even at the announced pace, only closes the [labor force] deficit by half,” Nazarov said.
Siluanov assured on Thursday that the government is not abandoning "the construction of an insurance pension system" and is also creating "voluntary pension insurance systems." He recalled the concept - a system developed by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank and providing for citizens to auto-subscribe for pension contributions, which will increase from 1 to 6% of wages over five years.